Prophetic Musings

Here's a prediction about the upcoming hurricane from what, I believe, may be the most reliable sources to yet predict the weather.

New Orleans, still down and out from last year's assault by Hurricane Katrina, is the U.S. city most likely to be struck by hurricane force winds during the 2006 storm season, a researcher said on Wednesday.

When I say "most reliable" I really mean "least credentialed". Here are our two Carnacs.

Chuck Watson of Kinetic Analysis Corp., Savannah, Georgia a risk assessment firm

and

University of Central Florida statistics professor Mark Johnson

You know, I'm sure these are two genuinely nice guys. Seriously, nothing against them at all. But how do a statistics professor and a risk assement firm come up with their numbers? Base it on history.

The forecasters, who have worked with the oil and gas industry and with state insurance regulators, base their forecast in part on the paths of storms over the past 155 years and expected global climate conditions this year.

I will give them one thing. History can show trends in these things. Joe Bastardi at AccuWeather is always using analogs against past hurricane seasons to find what might happen during the current season. The part that kills me though is the "expected global climate conditions". Forecasters can't even get the forecast for the next week right, and we're supposed to believe this for the entire hurricane season? OK.

Also, Reuters has to throw in their little jabs about global warming and how nobody predicted what happened last year.

No leading forecasters came close to predicting what happened in 2005, when 28 tropical storms spawned a record 15 hurricanes.

But for now, he considers the 2005 season an aberration rather than a trend or a definitive sign of effects from global warming.

"If it happens again this year or next year, then we're in a different climate world than we were in the last 100 years or so," Watson said.

The final nail in this is the last paragraph of the story.

Watson and Johnson have published a number of research papers on storm and wind damage modeling.

There you have it. They have done research on what happens after the storm, so they are qualified to predict the future.

Next week brings us the Al Gore concert movie, "An Inconvenient Truth." I know I posted on this topic yesterday, but more information popped up today. It sounds like the pro-global warming crowd is not being entirely truthful with the public. Read this article from the National Center for Police Analysis.

(h/t: PowerLine)

I'm an armchair meteorologist. I watch The Weather Channel more frequently than most. I was one year into a meteorology degree at the University of Oklahoma before finding out that a full-time job, wife and new child wouldn't leave me enough time to finish the program. I'm a trained storm spotter and amateur radio operator. I have just enough knowledge to make me more of an expert than most, but not an expert at all.

However, there is one area of meteorological/climatological discussion that I will not budge on, nor will I listen to the "experts." That area is global warming. I don't see how scientists can reasonably say that global warming is a certainty, when the actual data pool is less than 100 years old. Don't bring up the paleoclimatological data either, because it may or may not be accurate. There is no way to test it, so don't use it.

Now, finally, to the point of this. I read an article today about how a scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research brought up the idea that there should be a Category 6 classification on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Now, I don't doubt Mr. Holland's intelligence, nor his authenticity. I truly believe that these people are 100% convinced that global warming is occurring. Take this paragraph for instance:

But because of man-made global warming, most hurricane scientists say now we will probably be getting Category 4 and 5 hurricanes more frequently in the coming decades.

Followed later in the article by this one:

How well did the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration do a year ago in predicting the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season? Not so well, and the relatively new and unfamiliar factors of manmade global warming, say some scientists, may be part of what threw last year's predictions off.

The writer of this article, Bill Blakemore, expresses nothing but certainty that global warming already exists and is wreaking havoc on the world's weather. How else to explain this:

In fact, says Greg Holland, the world already has seen far more frequent Cat 4s and 5s. He points to several studies published over the past 12 months which "indicated the frequency of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes had almost doubled around the world in the period since 1970."

Wow, doubled since the 1970s. Can it be that we have better tracking than at any other point in history, probably even since the 1970s? There are more tornadoes reported now than have been in the past. Is that because of global warming? No, it's because there is better technology to be able to track these storms, and more people in areas that were not developed before. Who knows how strong some of the hurricanes in the past have been? We didn't have a way until about 20 years ago to track them out over the ocean like we do now.

The bottom line is, people should not be talking like global warming is an absolute certainty, because it isn't. Should we reduce emissions of the "greenhouse gases" in order to save our environment? Absolutely, it's a good idea, but don't force me to do it because you want to feel better about spotted owls. Global warming is still a theory, no matter what Al Gore says.

He just invented the Internet. He can't be an expert on everything.

This story is about a lady who owns a landscaping business in California who says she can't find Americans to take a $34/hour landscaping job.

That's $70,000 per year. I don't get paid that much as a computer programmer. This world is insane.

Stephen Bainbridge over at TCS Daily has a pretty good take on it.

Jesus Christ as Poached Egg

Read it all. He provides some background on where the heresies in the book originally came from, then lays flat anyone who states that Jesus was just a moral human man by quoting C.S. Lewis. Good stuff.

I read tonight that Jason Terry of the Mavericks is suspended for the next game in the series against the Spurs. My thought about the incident?

Good.

Mark Cuban defends his player here, but it's pretty hard to swallow what he's throwing out there. I understand that he needs to say something to defend Terry, but I don't see how anyone can blame Finley or Ginobli for what Terry did. Yes, they were on top of Terry going for the ball, trying to tie it up and get a jump ball. As hard fought as this series has been, I would expect no different. Even if Finley did 'piledrive' Terry with his hip, that doesn't mean Terry should punch him in the crotch. Open handed or closed fist, it's still uncalled for. I'm not saying Cuban is lying, I just think he's too emotionaly involved in it.

I do think the league is being two-faced in this, seeing as one of the Clippers' players grabbed one of Denver's players' crotch from behind, quite intentionally (and uncomfortably. I'm surprised the Denver player didn't stomp him into a mudhole). All he got was a fine. The NBA did the wrong thing in that case, but the right thing in this one.

I should say that I am a Spurs fan, living in the Dallas area. I'm trying to look at this as objectively as possible though. I think San Antonio got jobbed on some calls during the two games played in Dallas, just like Dallas got jobbed on some calls in San Antonio. These are two terrific teams and a great series to watch. I love Coach Popovich and Avery Johnson. Two great coaches and from what I've read, even better people.

My prediction for the rest of the series? Spurs win the next two games.

GO SPURS GO

I was reading this article from the Ft. Worth Star-Telegram and it made me think about what my motivations are for not wanting illegal immigrants to be here. The article suggests that some people don't want any immigrants because they fear their culture taking over.

I don't think it has anything to do with racism, at least superficially. I fully realize that I hit the genetic and geographic lottery by being born a white male in the United States. I won't deny that there are inherent positives to that. However, the reason I don't want people from any other country, not just Mexico, to be here illegally is because it is breaking the law. Anyone that knows me knows that I am a fairly strict follower of the rules. If the speed limit is 70, drive 70. I have always been nervous when doing something that I shouldn't be, simply because I always feel that the one time someone gets caught would be the one time I decide to do it. People should not be breaking the law as the first thing they do when they come here. Besides that, it's dangerous. I also read this morning that a 3-year old boy died when his mother was trying to smuggle them both into the US. I would not want to do anything that put my son in danger like that.

I don't think it's racism for me. It's simply not right for people to try and cheat the system. I don't care if they want to assimilate their culture into ours. Go right ahead. I love Mexican food, though not so much the Tejano music. I would love to learn Spanish to be able to communicate better.

I've been thinking about this over the past week or so. Many Christians are either calling for a boycott of this movie or refusing to see it because of the subject matter it addresses. The Catholic church has said they want a disclaimer put at the beginning of the movie to tell people that it is a work of fiction. (Sir Ian McKellen, an actor who I greatly enjoy, has his own take on this) I don't agree with that, and this is why.

It's not the responsibility of Columbia Pictures, Imagine Entertainment, Brian Grazer, Ron Howard, Tom Hanks, Audrey Tatou, or Sir Ian McKellen to tell the world the truth about Jesus.

It's ours.

If someone is duped into believing that Jesus fathered a child with Mary Magdalene because of this movie, then the responsibility for bringing them back from that belief falls on Christianity. If they don't know anything about Jesus and the Gospel before seeing this movie, the failure of that is specifically on Christianity.

We aren't talking about people in third world countries where it is difficult to get to. Most of those people aren't going to be running out to the Cineplex to see the latest Hollywood blockbuster. I'm talking about people on Main Street America, people in Paris and London, people who are easy to reach, but aren't being reached.

I'm not saying that I'm doing such a great job myself. I'm merely pointing out what I see as the problem. How do we solve it? One answer is to stop making Christianity such a social club. God doesn't care who we hang out with, he cares what we believe. If we confine ourselves to just being around Christian people, we lose the edge of dealing with non-Christians. We also tend to artificially lift ourselves up so that we think we have some kind of moral high ground. Again, point all fingers directly at me. Most of the people that I'm around are people from church and my kids go to a private Christian school. In fact the only two places that I ever go where I'm not around members of my own church is the city tech commission that I'm on and my job. I'm hoping to change that this fall, but that's another post entirely.

Wrapping up, I'll go see The DaVinci Code. I've read the book and I know what I'm getting into. I'll leave the decision to others whether they want to see it or not. (This all depends on the amount of sex in the movie. I don't remember any from the book, but it's been two years. Sex + nudity = me staying home)

Everyone (OK, everyone conservative) needs to read this.

I found out yesterday that I have been accepted into graduate school at Tarleton State University. I'll either be starting in the summer or fall, working on my Master of Science in Information Systems. It will be a tough, but fun two years to get it done. I'm pretty anxious to get started on it. All I have to do is take the GRE and score an 850 combined. It's already paid for, as I got my financial aid award letter yesterday too.

I wasn't going to post about this, but the media keeps hammering it. I just watched this video from WFAA in Dallas about the tornadoes this week. In it, they tell how there was no warning for the smaller cities in the path of the storm because there are no sirens in the communities. They interviewed two people who said "we're on our own out here in the country." Honestly, isn't that kind of the point to living out in the country though? Didn't you want to be on your own?

Here is my problem with all this. Sirens are useless. They are intended to be helpful only for people who are outside when they go off. They are not loud enough to be heard inside every building in town. Anna set off their sirens, but we are on the far north end of town and never heard them. It also might have been because we were already in the bathroom taking cover.

I'm a member of Collin County ARES (Amateur Radio Emergency Service) and a licensed amateur radio operator (KE5FUH). The spotters involved in ARES were instrumental in the early warning the community received. According to the timeline here, the first tornado warning was issued at 10:08 PM, before the funnel had been spotted. Then at 10:19 PM, the first reports of an actual funnel came in through ARES and the Weston VFD. I was listening on my radio to all this going on and it was quite an interesting experience. More on that in another post though.

My point to all this is that I don't see any reason for the people who were in the path of the storm and the media to complain about not having any warning. A simple NOAA Weather Radio like this will give the warnings immediately as they are issued by the NWS. That would have given just about everyone except for those on the far west side of Anna ample time to get to shelter. (This is excepting those living in mobile homes with no storm shelter. You're on your own with that)

Somewhat ironically, Tuesday night the Anna city council was set to vote on approving a contract for some new storm sirens. I'm not sure if the contract was approved or not or how much it is. If not, I'm going to recommend that they toss the contract and spend the money to purchase new weather radios for everyone in the city. It's still up to the residents to keep the plugged in or keep batteries in them. That might be too much personal responsibility for some people though.

UPDATE: Just heard from one of the council members. Yes, it was approved and they spent $58,000 on them. Politically it was probably a better decision than my idea, but I still think mine works better. $58K would have purchased about 1,200 radios.

Well, at our house anyway. We had a tornado hit Anna and Westminster on Tuesday (8 May) at around 10:30 PM. Three people were killed in Westminster, and several homes were destroyed. We had some friends that lost trees and will probably need a new roof, but their house is OK. It was a pretty interesting evening though. It was a really bad time to discover that my only ham radio doesn't transmit anything. Need to fix that.

There are also some things that I find we need to purchase and have stored so we can be better prepared next time.

We're still here though. Takes more than a tornado to move us out of here.